Macro Sentiment Dominates as Copper Prices Surge Overnight [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM March 13 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,763/mt, initially fluctuating upward to an intraday high of $9,800/mt. It then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of $9,729/mt, before rebounding to higher levels by the session's end, ultimately closing at $9,679/mt, up 1.14%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest stood at 297,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2504 contract opened at 79,800 yuan/mt, briefly hitting an intraday high of 79,870 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated downward to a low of 79,340 yuan/mt before slightly rebounding and pulling back again, finally closing at 79,530 yuan/mt, up 0.86%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, and open interest stood at 165,000 lots. Macro side, the US February CPI data came in below expectations across the board, fueling market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in June. Traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts within the year. The US dollar index hovered near a five-month low, coupled with market digestion of the US-EU tariff dispute and the potential for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, creating an overall macro environment supportive of copper prices. Fundamentally, supply side, with copper prices at highs, suppliers held a tight supply outlook for smelters, leading to strong sentiment of holding back cargoes and limited market circulation. Demand side, due to the significant rise in copper prices, downstream enterprises showed cautious purchase willingness, primarily purchasing as needed. Overall market transactions remained sluggish, with sellers and buyers in a stalemate. In terms of prices, copper prices are currently driven largely by macro sentiment. However, the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff-related remarks has heightened market caution. Copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs today.